Peg-Divergence Weekly

Peg-Divergence Weekly — first edition, 2026-09-06

The one-line finding

The dollar-quoted stock-token pools track their equities within a few percent. The eye-catching divergences the market is arguing about are in memecoin-paired pools — which price a token against a memecoin, not a dollar, and cannot be read as the token's dollar price at all. The distinction is the whole story, and almost no one covering this has drawn it.

What was measured

For each issuer stock token, the on-chain price is the volume-weighted average of its swaps in its deepest currency-quoted pool (USDG- or ETH-quoted), against the equity's price from CNBC and Nasdaq with the market session recorded. Pair types are never blended: a memecoin-paired pool is measured apart and never sets a token's headline, because its price is denominated in a memecoin.

Six of the most-traded stock tokens, in their deep dollar pools, are pegged. The equity markets were in post-market or closed at measurement (a Saturday), which is recorded on each certificate and is itself a legitimate cause of small gaps.

The two cases the market is discussing

AMC and CINEMA. On 2026-09-04 the fifteen-minute story was a memecoin, CINEMA, paired with the AMC token, rising more than tenfold. That run happened in a memecoin-paired pool, where the AMC token is priced against CINEMA rather than against dollars. In the same window, the AMC token's dollar pool — the deepest one, $3.2M of USDG liquidity — printed $2.65, within a hundredth of a percent of the AMC equity's $2.65. The two facts are not in tension: a memecoin can 10x against a token while that token stays pegged to its equity in dollars. Reading a memecoin-paired pool as "the AMC token's price" is the category error at the centre of the coverage. Finding on the AMC dollar pool: VERIFIED, pegged. The CINEMA pool is a memecoin-paired pool and is reported apart.

HIMS. The claim was that the HIMS token traded near $132 while the HIMS equity closed at $28.75. The HIMS token has no dollar-quoted pool with meaningful depth on this chain; the ~$132 figure comes from a memecoin-paired route. Per the frozen method, a token with no reliable currency-quoted pool is reported NO RELIABLE ON-CHAIN PRICE, not a number lifted from a memecoin pool. Finding: NO RELIABLE ON-CHAIN PRICE (dollar-quoted); the quoted $132 is a memecoin-paired price, not the token's dollar price.

Backing

For every token measured, the issuer discloses no per-token custody or share-backing data that could be located. The finding on the backing side is therefore BACKING NOT DISCLOSED across the set — the absence is the product. When an issuer publishes custody data, the certificate will reconcile on-chain float against it and report the ratio.

What this edition does not yet cover (stated, not papered)

- Memecoin-paired and Uniswap V4 poolId pools are not yet priced to dollars in the headline. Pricing a memecoin-paired pool to dollars requires routing through the memecoin's own dollar pool; that two-hop measurement is the next edition. Until then those pools are named and excluded, never blended. - The hourly and daily series and time-beyond-threshold figures come from the continuous job as it accumulates windows; this first edition is a single-window snapshot.

Method and re-derivation

The method is frozen (METHOD-PEG-DIVERGENCE.md, sha256 26efae15…, ledger kind-3 2710979) and every figure is re-derivable: the pool addresses, the block range, the swap-decoding rule and the equity sources are all on the certificate. The daily facts are attested on the auto-sign lane (kind-15 2711078), and any published certificate carries the A9+A10 hardware co-sign.